Description: The manner in which the actuarial profession models and manages mortality risk is undergoing dramatic changes. New modeling techniques have led to better risk management tools. Capital markets solutions are evolving for insurers wishing to protect against unfavorable mortality developments in both life insurance and annuity products. In this session recent key developments in mortality modeling and in the transfer of mortality risk are examined. From Record of Society of Actuaries, Vol. 30, No. 3: Annual Meeting and Exhibit, New York, NY, October 24-27, 2004, Session 133 TS.

Description: This is the abstract for the presentation on pricing mortality-linked securities with dependent lives under the multivariate threshold life table.

Description: This paper describes methods for determining bounds on the price of derivative instruments, such as option on insurance futures, given only market information. From Securitization of Insurance Risk: The 1995 Bowles Symposium, M-FI97-1.

Description: We devise an approach, using tobit models for modeling annuity lapse rates. The approach is based on data provided by the Society of Actuaries’ Risk Management Task Force. Kim [2005a] models annuity lapse rates using a logit model and the same US data (he also used Korean data separately). We find that the tobit model is a more than suitable approach for all levels of the explanatory variables including interest rates, unemployment rates, and GDP growth rates. Specifically, policyholder behavior in the tail of the distribution of lapse rates is explained as well as it is in the normal range of lapse rates.

Description: The values of life insurance and annuity liabilities move in opposite directions in response to a change in the underlying mortality. Natural hedging utilizes this to stabilize aggregate liability cash flows. Our study shows empirical evidence that insurers who utilize natural hedging also charge lower premiums than otherwise similar insurers. This indicates that insurers who are able to utilize natural hedging have a competitive advantage. In addition, we show how a mortality swap might be used to provide the benefits of natural hedging to a firm that writes only one of the lines of business.